Preseason Rankings
Old Dominion
Conference USA
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.4#118
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.3#268
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.1#178
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+3.5#81
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 1.1% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 0.9% 3.1% 0.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.5% 24.8% 11.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.5% 10.0% 2.4%
Average Seed 11.5 10.4 11.9
.500 or above 68.7% 87.6% 65.3%
.500 or above in Conference 72.7% 84.9% 70.4%
Conference Champion 13.3% 22.4% 11.6%
Last Place in Conference 2.2% 0.9% 2.5%
First Four1.4% 3.0% 1.1%
First Round12.8% 23.4% 10.8%
Second Round3.5% 8.2% 2.7%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 2.2% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Maryland (Away) - 15.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 32 - 5
Quad 36 - 58 - 10
Quad 47 - 115 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 39   @ Maryland L 62-73 16%    
  Nov 28, 2020 254   William & Mary W 75-63 87%    
  Dec 02, 2020 244   @ Norfolk St. W 68-63 69%    
  Dec 07, 2020 249   @ James Madison W 77-71 69%    
  Dec 12, 2020 99   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 65-70 34%    
  Dec 13, 2020 123   George Mason W 68-67 52%    
  Jan 01, 2021 171   @ Florida International W 74-73 54%    
  Jan 02, 2021 171   @ Florida International W 74-73 54%    
  Jan 08, 2021 191   Florida Atlantic W 71-63 77%    
  Jan 09, 2021 191   Florida Atlantic W 71-63 76%    
  Jan 15, 2021 265   @ Rice W 75-69 71%    
  Jan 16, 2021 265   @ Rice W 75-69 71%    
  Jan 22, 2021 95   North Texas W 65-64 53%    
  Jan 23, 2021 95   North Texas W 65-64 52%    
  Jan 29, 2021 82   @ Western Kentucky L 67-73 30%    
  Jan 30, 2021 82   @ Western Kentucky L 67-73 30%    
  Feb 05, 2021 110   Marshall W 77-75 58%    
  Feb 06, 2021 110   Marshall W 77-75 58%    
  Feb 10, 2021 164   @ Charlotte W 65-64 52%    
  Feb 13, 2021 164   Charlotte W 68-61 71%    
  Feb 19, 2021 131   @ UAB L 65-67 45%    
  Feb 20, 2021 131   @ UAB L 65-67 45%    
  Feb 26, 2021 193   Middle Tennessee W 74-66 76%    
  Feb 27, 2021 193   Middle Tennessee W 74-66 76%    
Projected Record 14 - 10 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.2 3.9 2.9 1.7 0.4 13.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.0 4.2 3.8 1.6 0.2 0.0 12.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.7 3.1 0.9 0.1 11.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 4.8 3.3 0.7 0.1 10.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 3.9 3.6 0.8 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 3.2 3.8 1.0 0.1 0.0 8.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 2.1 4.0 1.4 0.1 7.7 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 3.5 1.9 0.2 0.0 6.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.5 2.2 0.3 0.0 5.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.2 0.6 0.0 4.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.8 0.6 0.0 3.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.6 0.1 2.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.1 5.0 6.7 8.9 10.5 11.4 12.0 11.0 9.2 7.9 5.5 3.1 1.7 0.4 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
17-1 98.1% 1.7    1.6 0.1
16-2 92.8% 2.9    2.4 0.5 0.0
15-3 70.2% 3.9    2.4 1.3 0.1
14-4 40.2% 3.2    1.3 1.4 0.5 0.0
13-5 12.3% 1.1    0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1
12-6 1.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.3% 13.3 8.3 3.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 97.2% 53.3% 43.9% 5.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 94.1%
17-1 1.7% 78.5% 42.4% 36.1% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 62.7%
16-2 3.1% 62.9% 35.4% 27.5% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.2 42.6%
15-3 5.5% 43.5% 28.6% 14.9% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 3.1 20.9%
14-4 7.9% 30.9% 24.5% 6.4% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 5.5 8.5%
13-5 9.2% 17.9% 16.3% 1.6% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 7.5 1.9%
12-6 11.0% 13.7% 13.4% 0.3% 13.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 9.5 0.4%
11-7 12.0% 7.4% 7.4% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 11.1 0.0%
10-8 11.4% 4.3% 4.3% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.9
9-9 10.5% 2.4% 2.4% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.3
8-10 8.9% 1.9% 1.9% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 8.7
7-11 6.7% 0.7% 0.7% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.7
6-12 5.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.0
5-13 3.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.1
4-14 2.1% 2.1
3-15 1.0% 1.0
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 13.5% 10.4% 3.1% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.8 3.5 3.1 1.2 0.5 0.2 86.5 3.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 2.8 17.8 20.0 24.4 37.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 4.0 33.3 66.7